If Kerala has to emerge, empower Panchayat Rajs

If Kerala has to emerge, it needs to empower Panchayati Raj without spending Rs 1/- from its exchequer?

Kerala had emerged as a Trading post, 2000 years ago when Arabs, Egyptians, Mesopotamians, Chinese and many well trenched economies before Christ sent their dhows and boats to this Coast in search of various products like pepper, spices, ginger, herbs, etc paying in gold coins which has been unearthed from time to time from ancient historical ports of the past and the overstretched hinterland. Emerging Kerala inaugurated by Indian Prime Minister on 12 September was to hearld the born again covenant of kerala’s trade Past to a New Age future of industrial economic growth. It appears that the present day bureaucrats, who were in charge of a movement, forgot Kerala’s history when they planned Emerging Kerala which has already emerged, evolved and endured as a State where retail trade was their economy!

Kerala is one state where retailing thrives. There are no industries; hence, there is no industrial economy. FACT, Shipyard and Naval Base and Refineries cannot be catalogued as industrial development projects for spin-off economic growth. The infrastructure project, Cochin port which is worth the entire jewellery sold in India for a year or more as its wealth is inexhaustible, remains lusterless as Tuticorin port formed in 1985 has overtaken Cochin port by miles. We have in our possession, the Jewel in the Crown in the form of Cochin port. It is mainly a Port that caters to import rather than to export. Its marketing prowess is limited. Kerala and its hinterland is not export centric.  Has Government thought any plans to boost its revenue so that allied services and economy of service sectors will grow in leaps and bounds? We have no Plan at all to develop Cochin port. Every ambition of Sir Robert Bristow,  who is the architect of Cochin port(read Cochin Saga), has been thrown to the Vembanad waters, thereby the Queen of the Arabian Sea remains an old damsel having lost her charm The dilapidated and uncared Vathurthy and vendurthy bridges are typical examples of this neglect. The reclamation in Ernakulam which submerged lands to the extent of miles, which raked for GCDA Crores of Rupees made Arabian Sea furious and she in turn grabbed many miles of inland land from Fort Kochi to Veli and much more. Nobody has bothered about the coastal erosion which is systematically taking place submerging precious lands. Sir Robert Bristow had cautioned that any activity on the peripherals of the Cochin bay will cause tidal uprising. But who reads history when everybody wants a role in history making? And along with that the notional loss on submerged land!

Kerala is a land of literacy. It has a developmental model not created by any Economist, but emerged on its own. There was no need for any catalyst to design a model, because it was sayambu. Educational institutions and educational facilities provided in the state helped the people to be top brats who with their immaculate knowledge could be the bench mark of perfection. This attitude came up from dependence of these educated people with other people, as no opportunity is available for these great brains here. Keralian is everywhere with his superior intellect, excellent mannerisms, hard work, except in Kerala! Don’t blame Kerala or its education or its Politics for it. It is a trait, a grit that came from nothing from hard work. Treated worse than David Copperfield, these destitute need care, and protection. When no body offered, they became anti thesis of exemplary work. That agitation resulted in Attimari, Nokkukuli, etc. Kerala workers are the best, intelligent, hard working lot. They work as long as they are wanted to finish the work. They work independently. They do not need a supervisor to guide them. Their fertile imagination is better than that of his supervisor. These are hall mark of greatness. But you don’t see them, anywhere in Kerala, and on account of this, there was no economic or industrial development. The money order economy and remittance to Banks made many Managers to get elevated posts. It was not because of their ability. It was because the hard working expatriate send his money to these banks, and they transferred this sum to the neighbouring states of their bank’s branches so that those states prospered in leaps and bounds with kerala remittance money. Every application received from an entrepreneur was consigned to a closed file with the remark” technically not feasible, nor economically viable. Units of similar category have become Non performing Assets. Hence reject”. Period.

Now, with the Emerging Kerala revolution already on, industries are pouring into Kerala. It is a good sign. That a Government at least makes a symbolic gesture to publicise its strong points. THE embassies were represented by the respective Ambassadors. There emerged lot of opinions. Comments. Desires.  Some people refined their thoughts. Many decided that it was a new dawn. A new era. New Kerala emerging. Banquet of opportunities. Global connect with Kerala.

Is Emerging Kerala, a meet designed to engage in business carriage vis-à-vis entre nous? And how does B2G (Business-to-Government) terminology though euphonious fit in inter alia B2B (Business-to-Business) meet? KSIDC says it has received 140 proposals at B2G meet. Investment and starting of industries, bringing capital, introducing new technology etc cannot in any context be defined as Doing Business with Government. What Government is doing is one of its charters- ushering in industrial growth by publicizing Kerala’s assets. It is not Business to Government, as vouched by the KSIDC spokesman!

Just as they discuss any issue, the newspaper fraternity found many areas to criticize. The opposition boycotted the function. Many others who always had a dominant role in extolling the ‘doom’ theory just propelled it. There was controversy over Trade mark of the event. Plagiarism. In the summing up Press Conference, CM said one figure while Industries minister gave another figure while the Government Press note gave a third figure.

Now, there are many, who are asking this question, “Who choose the event Partners?” Day in and day out, our indigenous Chambers of commerce is breathing fire- suggesting various bits and pieces on industrialization? Why were they ignored? What is CII to Kerala? NASSCOM is a specialized body, whose services we do not require, because we have a country cousin of that organization in our own Techno Park. We are waiting for the arrival of which industries? What is our menu? We can plan for setting up of industries. But that cannot be at the cost of depriving patches of agricultural lands, as commented by one Planning Lord, because Malthusian theory will operate and is already operating in kerala.   

The Meet discusses projects having colossal costs, educational institutes of excellence, tourism, infrastructure, metro rail etc. When Vallarpadam Transshipment Container terminal is finding it difficult to put its foot properly with asking amendment to Cabbotage Law and with emerging strong competition from Colombo and Singapore, who are strongly entrenched hub Ports, would Vizhigam Transshipment Container make a viable story.? Adventure, eco, holistic sports and parks have economic sparks. But will they sparkle? Kerala’s Roads, especially Ernakulam roads, Broadway which is the narrowest way was a broad road by existing standards then. 70 feet Mahatma Gandhi road otherwise MG Road was another. When Roads with narrow footpath and crowded commercial shops dotting both the sides, where can one acquire land? It is high time, satellite towns, with all pharafernia need to be created where modern gadgets and modern hi-fi form of transportation can be developed so that it will take congestion off present day Ernakulam. Caveat that new buildings can come up only in the satellite town and counter magnet Cities adjoining Ernakulam  having the highest facilities.  Housing has come up in the most haphazard way, and has been unplanned, the causality being the civic amenities. Electricity and Water, the two essentials planning has gone awry, because of uneven growth.   Planning of industrial parks, which are neither Greenfield, nor dedicated, has created denial of the common facilities to the most of the units. KINFRA had a very queer agenda of industrial growth- its planning and location of industries needed a higher proficiency in terms of planning and locational advantages  . Setting of the First Apparel Park in Trivandrum instead of at kannur was a Himalayan blunder.

It was disclosed that in the Emerging Kerala meet projects worth 10 K Cr was mooted, Kollam 3K Cr, Trivandrum, Kasargode, Malapuram 2 K Cr and Kozhikode 1 K Crwhile Alapuzha 0.5K Cr), Kottayam (0.12 K Cr), Wayanad(0.15 K Cr), Kannur 0.03 K Cr), while Thrissur, Palakkad, Idukki, Pathanamthitta meager offering. Government talks in terms of Kochi-Palakkad corridor when enough interest has not been shown by the investors in a congruous manner. If this promised investment pours in, it is most welcome as it will re-draw Kerala’s industrial landscape.

Kerala’s industrial Policy is staid. It has a discontinuous programme which does not take off from one Policy to the next because of distortion, inequality and proper allocation.  Kerala does not have an Export Policy, even though from time of history, Kerala was a mercantile trade spot. The sea trade brought Kerala Gold, and almost all powers of the trading world then had succeeded in developing ties with Kerala. It was a harmonious relationship lasting at least 2500 years. Spices, black pepper, cinnamon, ivory, were all Kerala’s Unique selling Preposiition. The New Age brought afresh wave of European traders for spices, cashew, marine products, coir,   coconuts, tea, coffee, etc. Today, a bunch of Commodity Boards, wayward and isolated as they are, have been able to notch up little improvement in trade, commerce, export without the support of the Kerala Government which has no proficiency in exports. There was a body called KERAXIL. It got the boot.  KINFRA is supposed to be the nodal agency for ASIDE Scheme, and ask them their contribution to exports?  . The Policy makers have not fulfilled the aspirations of the Policy seekers by going for export options of the existing products and going in for new products. Creating the right infrastructure, right climate with expedious clearance.

In today’s situation of the manufacture of motor car industry, automobile spareparts industry is growing at around 40%. Replacement Parts market manufacture can be ideal for Kerala. Textiles with a rough Rs 12,000 cr retail, is there not scope for lady tailor’s co-operatives.  In Kerala, one does not even manufacture a hand kerchief, Tie, blouse piece on a mass level.

Then needless to say, we do not grab the chances that our neighbour states do to attract funds. Let us experiment with each district or Parliamentary constituency taking it as one unit.   We have a Member of Parliament. He has a fund to develop his constituency on an annual basis. There are MLAs representing the different bifurcated Constituencies under Parliamentary constituencies. They have been granted funds for development. Let them group as one unit, with District Collector as Convenor and Panchayat President as Joint Convenor. Let this body forget Politics in this body. Decide on the Sector Plans of the Constituency. Alleppey has coir industry; Kannur has Handloom industry; Aroor has fisheries industry; Kollam has Cashew industry; Idukki has tea estates; spices are pre-dominent in Wayanad, Rubber is the forerunner in Kottayam, etc. The MPs and MLAs will ear-mark a percentage of their development quota as allotment to this corpus.   With a well written Scheme after discussing with the stake-holders, go to Delhi and apply for Rs 50 Cr Industrial Infrastructure Up gradation Scheme of the Commerce & Industry ministry, Department of Industry. Micro Small and Medium Enterprises has a Scheme known as MSE-Cluster Development programme with Rs 10 Cr as outlay; Ministry of Rural development has also a scheme known as Swarna Jayanthi Grameen Rozgar Yojana (for Rural development). If we plan and design 6 projects under various Schemes, a corpus of Rs 100 Cr will be available, with the state Government investing nothing. No allotment is required for the Panchayat from the state budget. Panchayat need not even such from revenue avenues for doing these projects. Even Waste disposal project can be undertaken. Six projects worth Rs 100 Cr in a constituency, 20 constituencies can project 20x6= 120 projects; 20x100= 2000 Cr (over a dozen year period), employment, each project 100 direct, 100 in-direct. 24,000 direct/indirect employments.  Why not we start. Somewhere, something has to begin. We have Rajya Sabha MPs as well including its Dy Chairman and No 2 in the Indian Cabinet from Kerala. They can make Kerala’s dream to emerge in an industrial Kerala. (Kerala’s Panchayathiraj Plan)

If we have to emerge, we have to Endeavour, empower, and evolve. Only then, we can merge the present Kerala with a new Kerala and emerge as a Land of new opportunity. Kerala is on the move.

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Fooling all the people all the time

Could Government have avoided charging an extra bite of Rs 5/- per litre per diesel? Every additional Rs 5/- that is priced, Rs 1.50 goes to the Government and Rs 3.50 to the oil company which suffers loss during under recoveries and need to be compensated by Government. This levy will compensate the oil companies for the loss incurred by them in the under recoveries and Government gains Rs. 1,400 Cr. Fine, let us move on.

If we need our economy to be bright, we need capital to flow. Only investment will raise capital. For that foreign flow is a must. FDI in Retail will result in infusion of capital. This will help in more money flow by way of circulation. When money circulates, there is business. And this business will create growth. Growth will cause a higher GDP. Can’t we not invite Foreign Direct Investment, with riders? Asks the Government.

Country cannot afford RBI easing interest rates. All its efforts to tame inflation failed. Inflation is still a matter of great concern. Rupee depreciation is holding up the benefit of our trade balance. This in effect causes tight monetary effect on the country’s economy. Bank is not having enough funds for Credits. We need to bring in reforms. We cannot remain in the paralysis mode all the time. Opposition does not allow the government to perform. They do not give space to government to run Parliament. Second generation reforms cannot be introduced. Prime minister according to them is the villain. But the prime minister says, he is the victim. If subsidy is given priority in a empty balance sheet, deficit which was budgeted at 4.6% rose to 5.9%. Inflation continues to peak at 9%. No body wants sacrifice. Will anybody agree to decrease their salary? Even members of Parliament who get allowances? When production is low, how will the Index of Industrial production performance grow up?  If every state agrees to decrease their Tax on Petrol, Diesel etc, the prices will naturally slip. How many of the opposition ruled states willing to do it? Forsake revenue for the welfare of the people? Economic growth which grew to 9% slipped to 6.5%. How can we revive? If each step Government takes, you oppose, even a small step like that of Armstrong when he put one foot on the moon will make you fall from the moon, forget gravity!  We had a bilateral trade of $ 750 billion during 2011-12. Did you appreciate?

These Oil companies, are they not greedy? Do they not hide many things from us? Let us look at the truth.

Indian Oil Corporation is holding its 53^rd Annual General Meeting. Let us cast our eyes to the Balance Sheet of the Corporation. They registered a turnover of Rs 40,957 Cr. They had the highest ever crude throughput @ 55.62 million metric tones surpassing the record of 52.96 mmt recorded in 2010-11. Distillate yield touched a record level of 77.8% and the refineries achieved the lowest MBN (indicating the combined energy utilization factor). Capacity utilization, one of the benchmarks of refinery performance was over 100% for the 5^th consecutive Year. The operational performance was a Record!!!

Let us continue to look at the profit figures after tax. Profit after tax was pegged at Rs 3,955 Cr. With this huge profit, the Company Board has recommended a liberal 50% dividend coughing off a dividend of Rs 1,214 Cr during 2011-12 fiscal.

Hold your breadth. Last year, the dividend declared was Rs 9.50 per equity share of Rs 10/-. Forget the net capitation value of shares if even 55 is transferred. Cumulative dividend of Rs 20,882 Cr have been paid by the Indian oil Corporation even though the weeping Mr R S Butola, Chairman, IoC was repeatedly weeping about the so-called under recoveries.

Wait a minute. The profit after tax declared by the Company of Rs 3,955 Cr is only one side of the coin.  What has not been said by the company, but written in small point is, Rs 8,156.56 cr being the provision for payment of Entry Tax imposed by the Government of Uttar Pradesh on crude oil received at Mathura Refinery was decreased from the profit of Rs 12,111.56 Cr. That was provisioned, hence the profit is shown as Rs 3,955 Cr. The IoC went to Supreme Court and got a stay. Why do not the parties move the Court for early hearing so that the case could be disposed off.

Now, let us move to the under recoveries. Under recoveries sale of HSD, SKO (PDS), LPG (dom) in 2011-12 are compensated by Government. What the oil companies pay is the interest on working capital expenses involved for borrowing money till the compensation is received by the Government. Barring a) entry tax by UP and b) interest burden, the Report of the Board of Directors of Indian Oil Corporation says that the financial balance sheet is fine!

Another aspect of the Balance sheet. 1473 MMT petrochemical products grew by 62% Y-o-Y. Polymers and PTA were exported to the tune of 76,000 m tones.

The problem highlighted by the Company in the Balance sheet refers to high reliance on borrowings leads to high costs in the form of raising financial costs. The company instead of recycling its money through prudential norms expects 100% compensation from the Government.

Now let us ask our Dy Chairman of the planning Commission, one question: Sir, the profits of the Company, as indicated by the Balance sheet does not reflect the fact that Government’s compensation to cover the entire under recoveries is factored in it. Without factoring this, the profit has come. Add the with held profit amount due to positioning, it is Rs 12,111.56 Cr. Why do you fleet people of Rs 2 and Rs 5 when the management of the IOC with little more adroit skill can manage their finances without any government funding? IOC should be treated as a Public Limited Company. Why is the Government talking the divided from the company? Let it be made a corpus.

When people in the Government do not exercise due diligence, then errors in fiscal policy would cause an economic upheaval, as is happening in India, today. It I not enough we have Economists; we also need Accountants who will point at accounting cover ups. The Comptroller and Auditor General of India. Politicians should remember not to take Coal to Newcastle. Did I say Coal? That includes Coal from Indian mines as well!

Temples of celebrated quartet of Ramayana

Nalambalam Pilgrimage in Karkatakam

Come June 1, its equivalent in the Malayalam calendar is Edavapathi, when the rains begin to lash in Kerala with all ferocity. It also synchronizes with the opening of the Schools in Kerala.  The onset of the monsoons is widely welcomed, as on the strength of the rains, Kerala’s commercial crops depend heavily. Karkidakam, the last month in the Malayalam calendar when Sun transit Cancer between July 16 and August 16).  The month sees people attending temples every day, and the evenings are spent listening to various discourses and chanting of Ramayana. Kerala gets a festive and religious fervour during the month. 

Nalambalam, means four temples, which are in different locations of Thrissur district in central Kerala where the shrines of Lord Rama (Triprayar), Bharatha (Koodalmanikyam at irijalikuda), Lakshmana (Moozhikulam, Ernakulam district), Shatrugana (Payammal), the celebrated quartet of the epic Ramayana. They are one of the most popular religious tours of South India. Myriads of spiritually inclined tourists from all across the Indian subcontinent and abroad sign up for these tours from Thrissur. A trip to Nalambalam is a highly sacred auspicious event during Karkidakam, a highly sacred month in the Malayalam calendar.

Nalambalam Yatra begins from the Rama temple in Triprayar and ends up at Shatrughna Temple in Payyammal. It is customary to visit the four temples in the order Rama, Bharata, Lakshmana and Shatrughna respectively. Triprayar Temple houses a 6 ft tall idol of the Lord, holding Shankha', Sudarsanachakra, Stick and Garland, in a very ferocious form facing east. He is seen in standing posture. Vedi Vazhipadu is the main offering, but that does not match with the Lord. There are many lunatic beliefs that Hanumanburnt many fire crackers on the ear of the Lord, but as Hanuman can't do any harm to Rama, that is not good to believe it. The temple is under the control of Cochin Devaswom Board.

Koodalmanikyam Temple houses another 6 ft tall idol of the Lord, seen in ferocious form, facing east, in standing posture holding the same things as seen at Triprayar. This is one of the rare temples where only one idol is there. The temple has a private devaswom.

Moozhikkulam is the only temple in Ernakulam District, and the only one among the four temples, which belong to the 108 Divya Desams, praised by Alwars. The temple houses another 6 ft tall idol, similar to the idol at Guruvayoor, holding Shankha, Sudarsana chakra, Mace and Lotus, in standing posture, facing east.

Payammal is the smallest temple, having the smallest idol, also similar to that at Guruvayoor. This is the way to praise them: First, we have to worship Hanuman. Then worship Rama at Triprayar during his nirmalyadarsanam. Then worship Bharata at Koodalmanikyam and Lakshmana at Moozhikkulam during their Usha Poojas. Then worship Shatrughna at Payammal during his Ucha Pooja.

1. Triprayar Sreerama Temple Triprayar is in the middle of Guruvayoor – Kodungallore route. Those who want to come via Trichur should reach Cherpu and proceed went wards to reach the east nada of the temple . Here is the famous Rama temple. This is the first temple to visit as part of Nalambalam Pilgrimage. Darshan is possible from 3am – 12.30pm and 5pm to 7.30pm . Meenuttu and Vedi are important Vazipadu. Sited at a distance of 22 km from Thrissur, the Thriprayar temple consists of a group of four shrines that has been consecrated to none other than Lord Rama. The three day long Thriprayar Ekadasi celebrated during the month of Vrischikam .i.e. November to December in the Gregorian calender is one of the primary festivals that is celebrated with lots of pomp and grandeur. Prayers timings in the temple are between 4.30 am to 12.30 pm during the day and 4.30 pm to 8 pm in the evening.

2. Koodalmanikam Temple, Irinjalakuda This is a unique Vaishnava Temple and the second temple to visit. From Triprayar proceed in the Kodungallore route and divert from Edamuttam or Moonnupeedika. Irinjalakuda is about 20km away from Triprayar. Darshan is possible from 3am – 12 noon, and 5pm to 8pm. Important Vazhipatus are Thamaramala , Brinjal Nivedyam, Vedi , Gheelamp , Meeunttu.

3. Moozhikkulam Sree Lakshmanapermal Temple Moozhikkulam Temple is the third temple to visit and is dedicated to Lakshmana. This is in Ernakulam District near to famous Annadiane Mahadeva temple proceeds along Vellankallore in Irinjalakuda route to Kodungallore and reaches Mala, Annamanada and then Moozhikkulam. Darshan is possible from 4 to 12.30 and 5 to 8.

4. Payammal Temple This is the last temple to visit. Reach Vellangallore and proceed went wards 4 km to reach Aripalam. Take right turn and reach the temple . Important Vazhipadu is Sudarshanan dedication. Darshan time is as given along temples.

The Holy Ramayana month of 'Karkitaka' begins on July 17th this year. The Holy book of Ramayana is one of the very old books and is one that is read widely. The month of Ramayana has a great significance in many places in India.

In Kerala, the Malayalam month of Karkidakam is a month of heavy down pour and is considered as a month of scarcity. In this month, the people go for Ayurvedic treatments (sukhachikithsa) in order to rejenuate their body and mind. And equally important is the reading of Ramayana to wash out their sins.

In many of the Hindu families, this tradition is followed now also. In Kerala, 'Adhyathma Ramayanam Kilippattu' written by Sri Thunjathu Ezhuthachan is more popular than the original Valmiki Ramayana.

National Fibre Policy or Natural Fibre Policy?

National Fibre Policy or Natural fibre Policy?

The Government of India is following a flawed policy as far as natural fibre industries are concerned.  The National Fibre Policy, the draft of which has been already released, is flawed. One of the most important Textiles Ministry is under an additional charge of a Minister who is already holding a heavy weight portfolio of Commerce & Industry. Textiles are one of the most important segments which contribute heavily to GDP and Foreign Exchange earnings. Today, Textiles industries are facing mounting impediments to remain competitive when the market markets are squeezed for want of monetary wealth to keep the economy growing. But, India which is professed in political adventure games is more interested in politics rather than attempting serious governance! Second generation reforms which are long overdue remains on the blaming game and does not progress beyond a few notes and few noises. Nobody cares a dime.

            National Fibre Policy is not natural fibre Policy but anti- thesis of it. Man made fibres are preferred to natural fibres which are languishing due to poor Policy and monetary support for the various segments and sub segments of the natural fibre industry. Natural fibres are produced by Plants and animals. There are leaf fibres such as sisal and hard fibres such as Coconuts etc.  15 major and animal fibres dominate world fibre production- cotton to cashmere, have particular properties that place them in the luxury market.   Abaca, favoured source of rope, cotton (widely used natural fibre), Flax (one of the strongest fibres), Hemp which is a bast fibre, Jute (strong threads made from jute fibre, sack cloth), Ramie (white with a sulky luster, strongest natural fibre), sisal (replacing fibre glass fibres in composite materials used to make furniture), coir (extracted from the outer shell of the Coconuts, coir is found in ropes, mattresses, brushes, geotextiles, etc). Animal fibre include wool (world’s premier textile silk fibre), silk (queen of fibres), Mohair (noted for its softness and receptiveness to rich dyes), cashmere (soft to touch), camel hair (best fibre- Bactrian camels of Mongolia/inner Mongolia, baby camel hair finest, softest), Angora wool (silky white wool of Angora rabbit, quality knitwear), Alpaca wool (high end luxury fibres).

            When the world over, natural fibre is preferred due to their superior environmental friendliness vis-à-vis synthetics, we have authorities in India who would like to push the Man Made Fibres (MMF) through a National Fibre Policy unmindful of the damage to the environment and the associated cost to the Society, from disposing synthetic end products which are considerably greater than those accruing from bio-degradable products such as hard fibres. When traditional products would constitute an integral component of any Research undertaken to improve the characteristics of natural products or of the search for new ones within the overall strategy, we believe in formulating strategies and policies without caring for the generic concerns.   It is a pity, that Coconut fibre or coir fibre is not at all included in the National Fibre Policy, as India, like Srilanka, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, have been through policy intervention trying to strengthen coir production and exports through fiscal and policy support.

            Coir fibre constituted 25% of the value of total coir exports and 20% of the volume of the total exports, and the country has been producing 5,00,000 tonnes of coir fibre from Coconut husk, even though this is not even 50% of the available coconut husk supply, due to apathy of attention or intervention in its development. As Coconut is in the concurrent list, the Government of Kerala, is unable to get the centre invest in developing industries in Kerala because of lack of political will or incapacity to be a proactive state like Uttar Pradesh or West Bengal or  Tamilnadu which get a lions share of the Plan outlay.

It may seem odd, that the Coconut nor coir industry does not have adequate statistics to determine how many Coconut husks are available for use by the Coir industry and what is the quantum that is dehusked to make coir fibre and what is the residue  unused nos available for likely utilization . When the basic figures are not available, assumptions and notional statiscs form a part of planning, the results or inherent capacities go wrong, as a result, no proper planning can be envisaged.

Coir industry has a huge women worker population, and their livelihood and sustainability depend upon the fortunes of the Coir industry. If Coir industry comes to a grinding halt, the kitchens in many of the homes of Alapuzzha, Shertalla, Ambalapuzha, Haripad, Vaikom, Ettumannur, Kollam, Cheriyankeezhu, Thiruvanthapuram and wayside villages will remain unused, as the Coconut economy is the driving force. Yet, no structural approach, nor long term vision, finding an inequitable balance between growth and conversion on the user industry has ever been made. Government should have a long term commitment to support the traditional industry’s base. In the Micro, Small and MEDIUM Enterprises, the bulk of growth, and support is directed at micro, and mini industries and not at Medium Scale Industries which have financial as well as physical strength. But seldom are these nodes finding assistance from the MSME Act; government shying away from Policy support, Banks doesn’t want to finance the sector.

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Who is response for India's economic mess- Dr Singh, UPA, or Politics?

Is Dr Manmohan Singh alone responsible for India’s underachievement?

            Is India’s under performance in its economy due to Dr Manmohan Singh’s underachievement?   Is he, alone, responsible for slowdown in India’s economy, huge fiscal deficit, falling rupee, corruption scandals, political paralysis due to inept leadership qualities, and unfair power sharing agreements with regional parties who do not share Congress party’s economic  philosophy.

            It is true, that India’s growth momentum is slow and low compared to previous years. The Prime minister is projected as an ‘unachiever”, because he is in no position to launch any of the Second Generation Reforms. Is Dr Manmohan Singh alone the culprit for the economic mess that India is in?

            Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Institutional Investments brought Crores of Rupees in foreign currency to India. Setting up of collaborative ventures, opening up of aviation to the private sector, auctioning of coal blocks to private sector, Telecom miracle, privatization of infrastructure, disinvestment, giant setting up of Original manufacturers of automobiles, gave fillip to industrial growth, increased  capital formation due to setting up ancillary industries under the patronage of a mother units for original equipment manufacture as well as Replacement parts industry, gave impetus to increasing employment. The growth of the software industry, as a result of which 55% of the foreign exchange came from Service exports, put India in a frontal position in respect of bilateral, multilateral trade. The unemployment got reduced as India’s educated got employment in the new generation banks that began operations in nook and corner of India, the need for software and hardware engineers, aviation personnel for various private sector airlines, big industrial houses which went for Acquisitions & Mergers, acquiring properties abroad, manpower required for on-shore operations abroad, telecommunications which grew vertically and horizontally, export houses , export logistics, export infrastructure, export consultants, requiring qualified personnel, drove the employment market upwards. The purchasing power of the younger generation professionals, their fat pay, the change from joint family to nuclear families, easy loans for buying apartments, motor cars, household items, etc., saw more and liberal spending rather than depositing the money in the Banks, which kick started the economy which saw growth touching two digits. Inflation was at its low, because, there was huge consumption, and all round passing off money, rather than getting blocked in deposits alone. Currency circulation created enough money flow in the market which diminished inflation. Insurance Companies, including foreign companies, set shop here. There was sufficient business for anybody and everybody. The money came into the organized net and got circulating through bank drawls and deposits. Banks had enough money to lend, and with a wide variety of products for which it gave loans, its coffers filled. The loans were given against collateral guarantee, and hence non- performing- assets in the consumer, middle class sector like house loan, gold loan, car loan, durables loan, was nil if not very low. The credit Card/Debit market rose geometrically. The launch of Telecom Revolution saw the increase of teledensity grow by 1000% giving business opportunities across a value chain. Exports which were $ 45 billion in 2004 grew to US $ 300 billion, bringing in the much needed Foreign Exchange. Foreign Exchange Reserves crossed US $ 300 billion. Stock markets began to grow by more than 100 points on a regular basis. Private sector contributed to a Indian Retail Chain, which changed the mind-set of the buyers who flocked to the Retail markets, and big malls, so as to get everything under one roof. BoP position was easily met due to Foreign Exchange Reserves, remittances from Indian Diaspora, FII, FDI, Exports, etc. Banking sector got strengthened, as it was able to contain the excess flow of liquidity which would have created volatility.

            Come UPA II. Everything began to go sour. Rs 80,000 Cr was written off to compensate the farmers’ credit which had become NPA. Reforms halted as one or the other coalition partner refused to tow the line. Enormous money was required for providing subsidy and to undertake popular Schemes. Opposition was relenting which made governance difficult. America’s meltdown caused a lightening strike on India’s software industry. Our exports shrunk as that country was India’s largest bi-lateral trading partner. American economy which became weaker and weaker, and the brakes applied did not work to change the mood of the economy. The economic crisis engulfed to Europe. This struck the European Union in more than one way. Indian professionals or the service industry, felt the brunt. Inflation started to mount. The more the RBI tried to tame inflation, it grew, and increasing interest rates 13 times did not even get an inch of recovery. Government resorted to Keynesian formula. Liberal spending. This caused more discomfort than benefit. People stopped spending. They were careful with the money. It caused a downturn in consumption. Reduction in consumption caused reduction in production. This was instrumental in creating lay offs, and retrenchment. Banks did not credit as it should have got. The robust economy slid to 5.2% against our declared target of 9%. The financial deficit was uncontrollable. The deficit finance which was reckoned at 4.2% went up to 5.9%. Even though Direct Taxes receipt showed an increase, the actual receipt was only 55-60%, as most of the money due got caught in litigation.

            Scandals, scams, became a scourge to our economy. When Parliament was incapacitated to function by pandemonium and when one entire Session was lost, what policy trajectory was possible? There have been crusaders, who have been blocking every move of the Government. The coalition parties were declining to support the Government which is surviving on the mercy of Opposition parties who are ruling some States as regional parties. The fiscal deficit in the State budgets is no better. They want funds infusion like Rs 10,000 Cr (UP), Rs 12,000 Cr (Bengal), Bihar (Rs 10,000 Cr), etc. From where the Government will augment, is another matter?

            Dr Manmohan Singh when he was Finance Minister in Mr Narasihma Rao ’s cabinet, had to look after only Finance. The economic conditions then, were rosy. America was interested in India’s growth and the bi-lateral trade began to grow from US $ 30 billion to US $ 60 billion. The government of Rao was a minority government, and even if it had fallen, there would have been no serious repercussions. Today, if anything happens to the Government, Congress will lose face, and there are no strong statesmen in that party to bring unity in the diversity coalition.  Can we blame only Dr Manmohan Singh for all the ills?

            

             The monsoon , as we take stock, only rains but never pours. the deficiency will be reflected in the final tally of crops, and agricultural output, which will send India into a tail spin. Dr Singh's worries are not over. It would crop up again and again. Mamta is waiting with a bowl. So also others. And we have Anna Hazare waiting at the other end to cleanse the rotten political system which has already saturated.

Where is our democracy heading?

Democracy, either as a means or as an end, is alien to our Society which has been characterized throughout History by feudal and joint family systems, wherein life’s duties were clearly cut out depending upon one’s station in life.  There was little need for individual decision making, and if one were so inclined, choices were strictly limited.   The leaders, the elders or the system dictated what was to be done and one simply did it. No questions asked, and no answers given. Liberty and Equality, the fountain-head of democracy, were not only beyond the pale but were even subversive of established systems. Yet, here we are today liberating managements for not embracing democracy in a culture where both the management that are supposed to initiate it and the employees who are clamouring for it are strangers to it at least in spirit. Managements shrink practicing democracy for their own reasons.  And the unions which demand democracy rarely follow it within their own rank and file.   How many unions function democratically, holding election for office-bearers regularly?  If industrial democracy today is nothing more than a fad, then the causes for this have to be ferreted out and a course of action chartered so that we cease perpetuating inimical practices.  

From this beginning, the study of management in the US has been bedeviled by a clash between values. Those whose manner is authoritarian argue that autocracy is indispensable to the promotion of efficiency. How true it is, looking at the performance of a noted economist like Dr Manmohan Singh who cannot solve simple economic problems in India because of the governance of like-minded parties called coalition who would at any time turn ‘unlike’?  Industry should serve’ man’ and not man (to serve) the Industry?

Democracy like love is among the most misused words in our vocabulary and one of the evanescent and slippery operational concepts.   Movements conceived in its name assume a life of their own and frequently produce the very opposite of their originator’s intent. Sad though it is, it should not come as a surprise that ‘Theory’ and ‘Reality’ often fail to mesh.

Historians explain the Past and the Economists predict the future! And, we dream of the Present.

The Liberty, Equality and Fraternity,- the popular doctrines that lit up the French Revolution, slowly turned the Road and created anarchy, chaos and lawlessness. It was civil war among its own people. Guillotines were part and parcel of the waywardness of governance. Nonsense took over sense.  It required the might of one man- Napoleon Bonaparte- to quell anarchy with ruthless precision and restore law and order from the lawlessness that prevailed through iron fist.  He brought back the military rule thro’ the back door.  How did the poet react to this terror cum horror story of France when at the beginning of the Revolution, he sang, “Bliss was that dawn to be alive, to be young very heaven.” What happened to the Utopia of Liberty, Equality and Fraternity? Did they realize their dream?   Russian revolution, climaxed in the gruesome massacre of the entire Royal clan. Lenin, who came to Power, according to some stories circulated now, was poisoned by Stalin, who took over the reign on his death. Michel Gorbhachov, who wanted to bring open economy to USSR and usher in modern Reforms, paid the heavy price of seeing his United Soviet Socialist Republic splinter into parts. The super power behind the Iron curtain split into pieces. The echo was felt world wide. The Berlin Wall was felled by public wrath.  A number of Communist countries turned democratic.

But the Dragon, China continues to swear by Communism but is emerging as the most capitalist country in the third millennium. Its lavish Trade, international exposure, external investment in China, all taboo to Communist philosophy, is in full swing. It is the capital of Trading and Commerce.

Oliver Cromwell, who was Lord Protector of the Republic of England after beheading Charles I in 1849, was considered a regicidal dictator so much that Englishmen wanted to return to monarchy. Socrates, an old man, who was a plain thinker and questioner of beliefs was found guilty of treason when the People’s assembly ruled Athens. The period of Periclus in the Athenian History was regarded as the Golden rule. But history weeps that a good man was innocently put to death without reason.

Bertrand Russell, the author of History of Western Philosophy,  , noted thinker, philosopher had criticized warfare as an evil crushing people’s rights. He was a great friend of India’s V K Krishna Menon who was India’s high Commissioner at Britain and later India’s Defence Minister until the Chinese War of 1962.

George Bernard Shaw, a wild critic of William Shakespeare, and himself a dramatist, writer, thinker, and was the founder of the London School of Economics and Political Science in 1895.   His “an unsocial socialist” has ridiculed democracy.

Indian democracy glorifies mediocrity. Democracy has been defined by a European Social scientist as the ‘madness of money”. According to French Political philosopher, it is, ‘the cult of incompetence’. We have in every walk of life men of average ability. Great vision in Planning and Planning can provide a proper place for intellectuals who have the ability to transform ideas into products. Men of genius, make a dash to other countries where they win Nobel prizes. Indian Planners, who draw a Plan for better India of tomorrow, need to understand India of the Gandhian era.

-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o

Economic devaluation hurts

Government plans and economic reality have as much in common as the dinosaur and the donkey. Last year’s Union budget was a complete whitewash. All budget estimates were revised and fell below expectations. . The 7th budget 2012-13 presented to Parliament by MrPrnab Mukherjee, seems far from reality. Some mathematics here, some jugglery there, and some demograph to fill the missing links. The Government seems have lost its reality as a result concise road mapping seems to be missing. Government is unaware of the economy. Growth. World Trade. Policy. When all these ingredients of a budget are absent, it is a paper of calculations. Nobody knows what will happen over the next one year. . As a fall-out, we do not have a 12th Plan (2012-17) ready? There is no document ready, even though some figures are allotted for different sectors. The mechanism to run these Schemes has not been perfected. No Plan document. At the start of every five year Plan, the plan status begins. Consultations with various ministries begin. Finance Ministry holds Expenditure Finance Committee in case the threshold of the outlay is above Rs 100 Cr. Then, at the fag end of the year, Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs chaired by Indian Prime Minister give their approval. Only then, new Schemes sanctioned for the 12th Plan period gets budgetary approval. If the amount is released on 29th March, you can very well imagine what type of implementation will result. One year of the Plan period would have ended. Regarding approval for existing Schemes, adhoc approval basis, Scheme money will be released. Even during the X, XI Plan period, the first year of the Plan was not in operation reducing the Plan periodicity to Four Years.

Our pundits in the Planning Commission faithfully will tell you that the average economic growth of the XII Plan will be around 9%. Forget, during 2011-12, the growth was 6.1%. Based on these figures, the budget of the Finance Minister for 2012-13 predicts an economic growth of 7.6%. The Economic Survey has forecasted a growth rate of 8.6% for FY 14. If these statistics were to be proved right, the last three years of the XII Plan should post a definite growth of over 9.5%. Growth rates are predicted, fiscal deficit are targeted, but like the uncertain monsoon, they are never the conjuncture of the Finance Ministry. Who bothers? Given the world draught in economic growth and political paralysis in India, resistance to reforms, it is doubtful if our growth pace can outpace the predictions of the Government.

India needs Foreign Direct Investment to fund infrastructure projects. With our craze for social sector schemes, there is hardly any money to build capital assets. With hardly any policy that suit foreign investors on vexed issues like Policy and promotion, why would any investor be willing to invest in India, where continuity in Policy, in Tax Laws, Company Law, change even with retrospective effect. Vadafone is a classic example of this. Political high handedness which drove industry out of West Bengal made bad publicity. Odisha’s Posco project which would produce steel which is in short supply has been outliving the long delay of Envoironmental Ministry to give its approval, only to find it quashed by the National Green Tribunal. As it is, industrial development is concentrated in a few States of the Country. Social and economic inequality will come to the fore in these states where political reasons outweigh developmental needs. China has grown and is growing, because it is easy to get a permit there than in India to get a project on stream.

In case, political indecisiveness continue, we may see a vacuum in FDI inflows!

Bailing out PSUs and disinvestment

The reserve Bank of India on the eve of its mid term last quarterly review of FY 2011-12, brought down the CRR by 75 points which restored Rs 48,000 Cr to the respective Banks. The advance payment of Income-tax which is expected to touch Rs 60,000 Cr has started coming to the public exchequer. With the budget day, tomorrow, expectations are heavy. GDP growth may fall to less than 7% from the 9%, and fiscal deficit is likely to go up beyond 4.2% envisaged in the budget. Even though petrol prices have been hiked and the diesel price is waiting to be hiked, the State government and its Chief Ministers who are part of UPA and outside it, have been demanding restraint in the hikes as anti aam admi. The straying of inflation far beyond Government expectations uprooted the economy and the people are reeling under its direct and indirect impact. Any increase in prices of Public transport system like the railways is resented. Government fiscal deficit continues to outstretch the predicted rate, as the finance ministry is unable to match the Revenue receipts with expenditures. Government failed to take advantage of pricing Spectrum etc high so that the revenue would have added to Government’s income. The disinvestment in ONGC resulted in a flop, because of bad timing, wrong pricing. However, LIC had to jump in to save the day for the Government. The projected disinvestment in the budget 2011-12 was Rs 40,000 Cr.

Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) is also a financial institution, having assets around Rs 14 trillion. More than 25% of the Indian public have insured with the LIC. With a huge asset base, the Corporation’s influence on Indian financial markets is very large. Even in the midst of the arrival of new players, both domestic and foreign, LIC continue to hold its sway over a fixed percentage of the Population as a reliable and trustworthy organization. It has been managed well, and its investment returns regularly forms a part of its track record.

That LIC has traditionally been a major participant in most public issues of PSUs. It apparently also funds nearly 25% of government's expenses. Is it wise to deploy its funds to salvage the reputation of debt strapped public utilities, It has been argued on behalf of the government that LIC's investments in PSUs have swelled in market value over the years. Experts opine that most of the investments are government forced and there has been an erosion of nearly 25% of the investments in recent times. Take the recent Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) public issue for instance. Buying shares in an overpriced issue that had been skipped by other investors is not prudent economics.

This brings to the fore, the plight of India’s first mutual fund, the US-64. It was looked after by the state sponsored Unit Trust of India, which went ahead with unworthy investments which took a heavy toll on its returns. The funds collapsed. The government would do well to leave the navaratnas to its own management. The disinvestment proposal hinges on selling a part of the share holding to public thro’ secondary market. Like LIC, Coal India seems to be another milching cow.

Public Sector units are badly managed. UTI was bailed out in 2002. Air India continues to be a headache, requiring infusion of funds. BSNL and MTNL are the other utilities awaiting central funds to revive. Public has a stake in these companies, as it is the exchequer which finances government’s spending.

Political absurdity

The tamasha is getting more and murkier with every passing day. The Great Indian Circus of Indian Political parties have cost the nation dearly yet no lessons have been learned from past experiences.

Today, the regional political parties who vest the UPA government with numerical majority have started to show colours. Other powerful regional straps have become ambitious, and feel, that any encroachment to federal fiefdom would be an encroachment to the Constitution. There was a strong centre and weak states. To boot, you had Sec 356 of the Constitution by which a state can be brought under President’s rule by citing the break down of law and order. Boomai case changed the use or misuse of that Section.

The Prime Minister was talking of coalition dharma. It is coalition adharma that is prevailing. When the elections of 2009 threw in a majority for UPA, DMK blackmailed the UPA into submission. It wanted coveted ministries. It got Telecom. And the Telecom ministry got into such a mess, that the Minister is at Tihar Jail. There were many others over reaching Ministries which are under cloud, held by the other regional parties. Mamata berates her own nominee who is the Railway minister who brings in a balanced budget looking ahead by at least a decade. She wants him thrown out and another to be brought in. We see the prime Minister obliging. Now, in the name of aam admi, you cannot dole out government revenue, but entity should be self driven and balance its expenditure through income. To further aggravate the Government, Mamata does not take part in UPA conclaves or meetings but seems to be showing her inclination towards other front. That is her right. Let her. But on the one hand, she is part of the Government, and on another, she is the worst critic of the Government. Her bull doze approach is get central funding for the state of West Bengal. An impossible outlay as the state requires money. It was the same Mamata who drove the Tatas out; this industrial unit would have provided jobs for many people and the revolving economy around Nandigram would have cascaded wealth in West Bengal. Jayalalitha, the satrap of Tamilnadu is savvy, statesmanlike and polished. She finds all faults, but at least in her case, she is not part of UPA. She does not want any inroads into Federal structure, no anti terrorist acts, etc. She wants electrical power, she wants central investment, but she would not permit the setting up of Koodankulam nuclear Plant. When asked for her fears, she just says that if a nuclear plant in Japan could cause devastation, why not this. What happened at Japan was not that anything was wrong with the Plant, but hurricane with tsunami ran roughshod over the Plant, which saw the radiation fuming into the atmosphere. You want all the good, and take all the bad seems to be Jayalalitha’s refrain. DMK, shattered and blistered, is raking up the right violations- especially killing the 12 year son of LTTE Chief Prabhakaran in cold blood. This seems to be a serious issue and why is the world watching Sri Lankan brutality against innocent Tamilians in silence. I saw Kannimozhi vociferous in presenting the case with passion in the Rajya Sabha. DMK’s bad governance has cost the UPA directly and if they want to leave the coalition, they must be allowed to. Now every state government asks who stole my cheese? They want the benefits, but do not want to carry the burden, like TN as far as Koodankulam nuclear power plant is concerned. Against terrorist activities, if a Central organization is formed, as the state police have been unable to ferret out the terror outfits or other thugs, why should there be a chorus of protests? Where is the attack on autonomy?

Coming back to the Coalition dharma, which the Prime minister eloquently parroted, the Council of Ministers headed by the Prime Minister shall hold office if they enjoyed the majority of the Parliament. There can be coalition parties who can be part of a coalition. But the right to allot portfolios is the prerogative of the Prime minister. This cannot be delegated to the Political parties who form a part of the Coalition. This is not dharma. The King chooses his team. When President describes my government, it means Prime Minister and his team of Ministers who have majority in Parliament. It is high time, the national Political parties change their equation, and follow rudimentary principles, lest they become laughing stock. Country should not be held to ransom because of the writ of one individual!

Kundankulam- fears real or unfounded?

Is Kundankulam Plant fears unfounded and far fetched?

Is the fear about the Kundankulam atomic energy plant unfounded or far fetched? Is it much ado about nothing? Or is it spill over of political activism? Or the big developed nations want India to live in bullock cart age without developing? Is there a conspiracy?

Three Mile Island nuclear accident in 1979 did it not happens? Chernobyl disaster where the reactor burst like abomb carrying the devastation of nearly large areas in its radius reducing them to a pulp in 1986. Fukushima, located in the sea front, and built by the meticulously by Japanese scientists caused destruction of a high order. Fishermen died, large amount of fishes were affected by the radiation from the reactors. Fishermen community fears such stories as repetition of the Minamata tragedy, where fishes took mercury and perished because of the location of a caustic soda factory there. There was fear, and more fear instilled among the local people and ignorant population.

There is another question. Why did the people wait till 2009, even though the plant initially began work in 2002? There are large numbers of nuclear reactors all over the world which provide power. The disaster percentage has been very few. The incident of occurrence of Fukushima tragedy can be related to a unique combination of nature’s fury- earthquake followed by tsunami is indeed a rare natural occurrence. Against the tsunami, no structure can withstand. But does this mean that the risk in a nuclear reactor is unpredictable and inherent? There is an attitude of the engineers and scientists of the atomic energy department. They do not vibe well and decently with the local population. Every one has a right to question the safety of these reactors? What are the inbuilt safety standards? Are our Scientists or technocrats not answerable to the locals who have their doubts lingering in their minds? Fishermen, can’t they have serious doubts about their livelihood options. Was there an attempt to build confidence between the agitators and the establishment except lathi charge on the protestators? Fishermen depend on fishing for their sustain hood, and hence their doubts on safety measures need to be shared with them. You cannot say, atomic energy Act is shrouded in secrecy, we cannot reveal much, but can assure you nothing untoward can happen. If the Indian Scientists were so much above board, why did the Govt of India put an order on top four scientists in the negative list? (Even though the country believes they are great men who have done the country proud). Government can raise their doubts of malfeasance with the top most scientists of impeccable integrity while the local people whose life is centered on Kudaukulam?

Government has characterized the stirs and protests to flow of foreign money into the coffers of a few NGOS who have diverted its money to campaign against the atomic plant. In Tamilnadu, 3218 NGOs received Rs 1663.31 Cr foreign money from America Britain, Germany, Italy and Netherlands. These countries have nuclear plants and depend upon nuclear energy. This allegation needs proof, legal proof which will stand the test of Rule of Law.


Would the Nuclear experts clarify some points? What is the cost of producing one watt of power? With hard water transported from elsewhere, and the cost of maintaining a plant with all its safeguards, what would be the recurring cost? How is one unit of power calculated? What about the safety net. Till what point or the circumference or diameter is considered as high vulnerable area. If there is a radiation leak, what would be the time limit to evacuate all the people to another point where the doses of radiation will not inhibit? What is the disaster management plan that would be put in operation in the eventual case of disaster? Are the plans of evacuation imbecile? The decision to take appropriate action, however cost it might incur, can be taken by the people at the grass root level, or would they need clearance from higher ups, and higher ups need clearances from the top brass in Delhi? These actions need to be documented and explained to the people in detail. Do not give formulas on the black board and make your exit. Convince the people. What about the unsolved problem of disposal of nuclear radioactive waste. It is reported that 30 tonnes of radio active waste is generated in a 1000 MW. Radio active wastes are just hidden in vitrified and sealed and buried. The people who bury the waste are fully conscious of their nature of hazards. Will they share it with the people? There are 3 lakh tonnes of radio active nuclear wastes remain accumulated from nuclear atomic plants. There are fantasy theories giving suggestions of storage of this highly hazardous waste. This need protection, for which a cost is involved. If the safeguarding cost is included in the cost of energy produced, it would be astronomic!

India was producing 1400 MW in 1947. Today its production is around 1, 82,000 MW. Still, we are hungry for power. Hydroelectric power projects have become ecological disasters. Submerging of lands is another issue. Erratic monsoons will cause upheavals in the production control. Coal, lignite, is costly. Rare. From pit head to the power station, transportation is exorbitant. There are alternative sources of energy. But this can produce small lumps and not massive power required for developing the country. Cadicott wrote a book in 1978 titled, Nuclear Madness. If after reading the book, some body provides answers to her questions, we can say that the atomic plant is fail safe.