Election of 2014 in India- a forecast

Who will rule India in 2014?

India is expected to go to the Polls by 2014. Every political party has arrayed with one another, most of them waiting for the outcome to forge an post election alliance to derive maximum advantage.

In the present context, leading the pack of cards is UPA which has been in rule since 2004. Opposing them is the NDA which has lot of space in much state as well as in various union territories.

The elections of 2014 are expected to bring out queer results. Both the national formations UPA, NDA have lost touch with the people and their aspirations. But, both of them are confident of sweeping the Polls. There is also clamour for the third front, as both NDA and UPA seem to be the bird of the same feather which flocks together. The extreme eagerness amongst the regional parties, who would want to forge a federal front has been getting clamour. But it looks non starter since inception. Their divergence is the moot point that they cannot come together. They have fundamental differences, that will inhibit becoming part of a front, even if formed can be found to suffer longevity.

Each state has two fronts, each enemy of one another

DMK/AIDMK

Nitish Kumar/Lalu Prasad Yadav

Mamata/Communists

SP/Mayawati

Abdulla/Mehabooba (JK)

In Karnataka, we have a Yedurappa factor, which can spoil sport. Even Gowda, the spent sport can also rejuvenate at times. NCP will be coy to any developments in Maharashtra. BJP/Shiva Sena can send shock waves in Maharashtra, but Shiv sena divided, may be not be invincible as it was.

North East may play considerable role which may not be significant but important to both the fronts.

The fresh infighting in the BJP due to NaMo factor may see cross voting. But who will stab who remains to be seen. This will rule true in MP, Rajasthan, Himachal, Haryana, and other places. Congress too, will be struck with in-fighting. There may be permutations and combinations on the eve of elections. Subsequent to the elections, Aya ram, Gaya Ram, will come to play. But stable government is ruled out. The electoral moods of people, if taken as of today, the people are a worried lot. They do not expect any miracle.

A new alignment mat manifest.

Based on our intricate study, following will be the electoral success in the 2014 elections.

State	Lok Sabha seats	Third Front	Congress	BJP	Left Parties	Independent	Others	Unknown
Andhra Pradesh	42		5	2	3	6	26
Arunachal	2					2
Assam	14		5	4	3	2
Bihar	40	20	18	2
Chhattisgarh	11		4	7
Goa	2			2
Gujarat	26		1	23	1		1
Haryana	10		5	4	1
HP	4		2	2
J&K	6		3				3
Jharkhand	14		7	4	2
Karnataka	28		14	9			5
Kerala	20		11		8	1
MP	29		7	22
Maharashtra	48		21	27
Manipur	2		2		1	1
Meghalaya	2		1			1
Mizoram	1					1
Nagaland	1		1
Orissa	21	15	2	4
Punjab	13		4	9
Rajasthan	25		14	11
Sikkim	1		1
Tamilnadu	39		5		2	1	32
Tripura	2				2
Uttarakhand	5		2	2		1
UP	80		15	20	4		41
West Bengal	42	25	8		9
Delhi	7		3	3		1
Andaman Nicobar	1		1
Chandigarh	1	1
Dadra Nagarhavali	1					1
Daman Diu	2							2
Lakshadweep	1	1
Pondicherry	1						1
Total	574

If there is a Third front consisting of Trimool Congress, BJD (Biju), BJ(U) Nitish Kumar, they stand to bag 80 seats out of 574 parliament seats in the 2014 Poll. Jayalalitha’s AIDMK is expected to bag 25 setats, also 1 seat in Puducherry, while DMK may win 7 seats, while SP/Mayawati may win positively in 41 seats.  Chandra Babu Naidu may wrest 26 seats. Left front may romp home with 36 invaluable seats, while the tally of independents posting wins will be around 18. Two seats may go to anyone.

Congress may bag 162 seats, while BJP will emerge as the large single party with a mandate of 169.

The seat position in the 15^th Lok SDabha will be as follows:

Sl Number	Party	Strength
1.	Congress led UDF	162
2.	BJP led Front	169
3.	Third Front	80
4.	Left Parties	36
5.	Others*	109
6.	Independents	18
7.	Unknown	2
	Total:	576

Let us hope, the election of 2014 will crop up new leadership decisive to lead the nation to prosperity and Rama Rajya.